Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency sparked by the announcement of a new 28-article proposal for ending the war appeared – momentarily – to have been defused. A senior US official spoke of "notable headway" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its retaliation: another massive barrage of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Negotiation and Warfare
The sequence of conflicting incidents captured the grim essence of the outgoing year. By day, political struggles are fought: positive announcements are delivered from various governments. Immense energy is devoted on containing particular approaches. By night, Russian leadership clearly shows the world that, for them, war remains the key method for achieving "settlement".
Nocturnal Warfare
As the offensive developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's exposure was revealed. Ukraine is capable of detecting projectile deployments from Russian territory, a ability provided through current data. From vantage locations, military aircraft that had been scrambled to counter approaching cruise missiles roared overhead – advanced fighter aircraft supplied to Ukraine by NATO members.
Shortly after, Kyiv's missile defense activated: several firings targeted at a hostile projectile. This was a modern interception technology at work, most likely supplied through allied countries. Every launch jolts you unexpectedly, shaking the windows. The moment of terror quickly becomes sober acceptance: possibly the hostile projectile won't strike its target this time, preventing destruction from catastrophe and another blackout.
Persistent Threats
Soon after, a large-caliber weapon engaged a unmanned aircraft in the vicinity, part of a rapid response unit – most likely imported technology. Regrettably, the shots failed to hit the enemy aircraft – it pressed on overhead toward its destination.
With pauses, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv faced the morning news: several casualties, devastation and heating outages in many homes as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As customarily, everyone still continued their routines – enduring hostilities. But those entire period encapsulated Ukraine's essential dependence on Western support – a reliance that European nations are demonstrably unable to substitute in the near term.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The comprehensive proposal from American leadership generated strong feelings, controversy and profound anxiety – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after earlier high-level meetings and bilateral conferences.
Every new proposal from US leadership follows the consistent cycle: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, succeeds in resisting. They manage the tension but never actually win the battle. This trend will, undoubtedly, persist.
Strategic Calculations
It is easy to blame certain parties of repeatedly advocating Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. Washington operates on a premise familiar among experienced diplomats: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have been unable to protect through force. The US administration believes that it is unfeasible to compel Moscow to relinquish the areas that it currently occupies in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The problem is that while acknowledging this situation, American administration does minimal to deter Moscow, through diplomacy or military means, from assuming that the situation will not evolve additionally in its benefit in the coming year.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, the Kremlin is convinced that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its partners are nearing depletion. Their motivation to agree to terms that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is close to zero. There may be many attempts to stop fighting, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leadership remains supremely confident in the outcome.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still endure, progressively conceding people and territory but avoiding a entire defensive failure until circumstances change in its benefit.
Present Conditions
Realistically, there are no actual prerequisites for a armistice. Now, personal considerations are entering the equation: political desires to broker a ceasefire and secure international recognition, and Kyiv's double obstacles – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the national cause against any initiative Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their priority does not shift toward internal issues. And although their task will now be significantly challenging after current events, it remains quite doubtful that this will modify their basic position.
These opposing factors are guiding negotiations.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a just a single week to eliminate the 28 points of the latest plan. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by US administration, opposition by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with soothing efforts of negotiators, and finally, recent disclosures, all achieved their purpose.
While new plans based on established approaches are imminent, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off diplomatic offensives from Washington that are based on Russian demands and show specific hesitation to modify developments, if they stand together and improve their protective measures at a much faster pace. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the foreseeable future, primarily depend on continued Western support.
