A decade after the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that split the country and triggered disorder, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking disturbances for which nobody is ready.
That represents the warning from two respected commentators from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and transformative referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
New Title Seeks to Stir Debate
The pair have analysed the political, economic and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the issue with a roadshow of lectures that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everyone, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an highly split population where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the victorious side are uncertain exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say that moment is looming, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the possibility, leaving it unclear when or if there could be a referendum.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements for and against unity has hidden the lack of substantive discussion, noted McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A lot has gone on in academia but hardly any elected officials or activists are willing to participate even with the fundamentals. As an example, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, no writer advocates unification or the existing arrangement. Each authors two essays that seek impartiality in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling financial and societal figures, historical precedents and structural examples.
Debates range over identity markers, duties, medical care, pensions, public liabilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The aim is to enlighten and encourage discussion.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there is still lacking a debate," commented the writer. "Debate indicates an acceptance of the notion that there could be good arguments on either side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where voters claim they prefer unification but oppose greater financial contributions or implementing a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"The Irish government does need to establish what the plan from Irish nationalism is beyond just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a referendum in his era is possible and that it could happen abruptly. "You could have just a reckless or a bad or a incompetent government minister who states: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate arguments, he said. "Somebody will succeed here and the other side will in the end be defeated but all factions has got valuable insights to acquire from the opposing positions."
Request for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster must engage with the debate, stated O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish matter."
